The impact of temperature anomalies on commodity futures

Taskin D., ÇAĞLI E. Ç., EVRİM MANDACI P.

ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY, cilt.16, sa.4, ss.357-370, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 16 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1922546
  • Dergi Adı: ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, Greenfile, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.357-370
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Climate change, commodities, agriculture, energy, industrial and precious metals, recursive evolving window causality, GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE, ECONOMIC-IMPACTS, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS, ELECTRICITY DEMAND, US AGRICULTURE, CROP YIELDS, WEATHER, ENERGY, CONSUMPTION
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Recent evidence points to global warming and climate change as the biggest issues of the century; thus, the analysis of the weather-commodity futures prices relationship has crucial importance. This paper considers the relationship between weather anomalies, proxied by the Global Historical Surface Temperature Anomalies (HadCRUT4), and futures prices of agricultural products, energy commodities, industrial, and precious metals. Analyzing the monthly data between December 1982 and November 2020, the outcomes of the novel Granger causality test suggest unidirectional causality from the temperature anomalies to commodity futures prices. The findings imply that global temperature anomalies impact the expectations about the agricultural- and energy-related economic activities, including the use of commercial and organic fertilizers and fossil fuel combustion, respectively.