Forecasting Intermittent Demand by Markov Chain Model

UZUNOĞLU KOÇER U. Z.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INNOVATIVE COMPUTING, INFORMATION AND CONTROL, cilt.9, sa.8, ss.3307-3318, 2013 (Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 9 Sayı: 8
  • Basım Tarihi: 2013
  • Dergi Adı: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INNOVATIVE COMPUTING, INFORMATION AND CONTROL
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.3307-3318
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Forecasting, Intermittent, Lead time, Markov chain model, Transition probability
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The inventory control of the products which have intermittent demand is essential for many organizations since these items have a low lead time demand but a high price. Since the intermittent demand pattern is irregular, the estimation of the lead time demand is challenging. A modified Markov chain model (MMCM) has been pro-posed for modeling and estimating intermittent demand data, motivated by a case study. The performance of MMCM and the traditional methods have been compared by accuracy measures. The results reveal that the proposed method is a good competitor or even better than other methods.