Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Global Maritime Congress 2024, İstanbul, Türkiye, 20 - 21 Mayıs 2024, ss.9-11
Statistical Analysis of Ship Accidents: an Application in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Sea
Despite many precautions taken, maritime accidents are one of the most important problems of the maritime sector in terms of loss of life and property as well as the risk of environmental pollution. This study aims to statistically analyze maritime accidents in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Sea in terms of accident severity and total loss. For this purpose, 408 maritime accidents between 2013 and 2023 were analyzed and Chi-square analysis and association rule mining were performed on these data. For this analysis, casualty type, flag type, ship type, ship age, ship gross tonnage, ship length, cargo load status, weather condition, waterway type, casualty region, severity level, and situation of total loss were selected as variables. In the chi-square analyses, firstly, severity level was selected as the dependent variable. In this analysis, a significant difference (p<0.05) was found between severity level and ship type/ship gross tonnage. Secondly, the situation of total loss was selected as the dependent variable. In this analysis, a significant difference (p<0.05) was found between the situation of total loss and cargo load status/ship gross tonnage/ship length/casualty region. Association rule mining analysis was performed with threshold values set as 0.2 for support value and 0.8 for confidence value. In the association rules with the highest support value, "hull/machinery type accidents", "ships over 12 years old", "the accident occurred at the open sea" and "ships with a FOC flag" were found as prominent states. On the other hand, "ships over 12 years old", "general cargo ships" and "ships between 95 and 120 meters length overall" were the prominent states in the association rules with the highest confidence value. It is thought that the research findings will be a guide for the authorities in the analyzed regions and ship owners/operators operating in this region in terms of ship accidents.