Research Information System
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, vol.16, pp.982-988, 2023 (SCI-Expanded)
Megafoods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens
and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of
life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go
beyond national borders and cannot predict these foods well because of
limited data on megafoods, and because food generation processes of
extremes difer from those of smaller, more frequently observed events.
Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging
stations across Europe and show that recent megafoods could have been
anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe.
Almost all observed megafoods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values
estimated from previous foods in other similar places on the continent,
implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This
holds also for older events, indicating that megafoods have not changed
much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept
of the study is that catchments with similar food generation processes
produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries
and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and
save lives.