A new model selection strategy in time series forecasting with artificial neural networks: IHTS


ARAS S., DEVECİ KOCAKOÇ İ.

NEUROCOMPUTING, vol.174, pp.974-987, 2016 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 174
  • Publication Date: 2016
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.neucom.2015.10.036
  • Journal Name: NEUROCOMPUTING
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.974-987
  • Keywords: Neural networks, Forecasting, Time Series, Model Selection, PREDICTION
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Although artificial neural networks have recently gained importance in time series applications, some methodological shortcomings still continue to exist. One of these shortcomings is the selection of the final neural network model to be used to evaluate its performance in test set among many neural networks. The general way to overcome this problem is to divide data sets into training, validation, and test sets and also to select a neural network model that provides the smallest error value in the validation set. However, it is likely that the selected neural network model would be overfitting the validation data. This paper proposes a new model selection strategy (IHTS) for forecasting with neural networks. The proposed selection strategy first determines the numbers of input and hidden units, and then, selects a neural network model from various trials caused by different initial weights by considering validation and training performances of each neural network model. It is observed that the proposed selection strategy improves the performance of the neural networks statistically as compared with the classic model selection method in the simulated and real data sets. Also, it exhibits some robustness against the size of the validation data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.