Artificial Intelligence and China’s Developmental Path: A Smithian-Arrighian Perspective

Toker E. C., Afşar K. E.

The World Association for Political Economy 19th Annual Forum, London, England, 3 - 07 August 2026, (Unpublished)

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Unpublished
  • City: London
  • Country: England
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study investigates the extent to which China’s approach to artificial intelligence (AI) diverges from the logic of labor substitution and “creative destruction” characteristic of Western capitalist economies. The analysis employs Adam Smith’s concept of the “natural path of opulence” and Giovanni Arrighi’s theoretical framework, which interprets China as a market-based yet non-capitalist model of development. The central argument is that China does not primarily view AI as a technological instrument for increasing capital profit rates and displacing labor on a mass scale. Instead, AI is conceptualized as a strategic developmental tool for expanding the domestic market, supporting rural development, strengthening human capital, preserving social stability, and facilitating transitions to higher equilibria under state guidance in China.

The research utilizes a document-centered, directed qualitative content analysis. Specifically, it examines the national informatization text of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and the proposal text for the 15th Five-Year Plan issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. The coding process is structured around theoretical themes, including Smithian growth theory, accumulation without dispossession, the visible hand of the state, the industrious revolution, the high-level equilibrium trap, domestic market expansion, and rural development.

The findings indicate that both documents consider AI in conjunction with rural modernization, smart agriculture, digital skills development, employment-first growth, anti-monopoly regulation, and social governance. Notably, the dual circulation strategy in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the “AI Plus” approach in the 15th Plan proposals demonstrate that AI is positioned as a state-directed mechanism of transformation oriented toward social welfare, rather than as a tool for accelerating unregulated capital expansion. Within this framework, China’s AI strategy is shaped by a historical-institutional logic of development that is distinct from that of capitalist market economies.