Jumping to Conclusions in First-Episode Psychosis and Bipolar Disorder


Cesim E., Demir M., Eyüboğlu M. S., Demirlek C., Verim B., UZMAN ÖZBEK S., ...More

Early Intervention in Psychiatry, vol.20, no.7, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 20 Issue: 7
  • Publication Date: 2026
  • Doi Number: 10.1111/eip.70212
  • Journal Name: Early Intervention in Psychiatry
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Psycinfo, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
  • Keywords: bipolar disorder, first-episode, jumping to conclusions, psychosis
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Aim: Jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias, which is frequently observed in psychosis, is the tendency to make decisions based on inadequate information. This study explored JTC bias in individuals with first-episode bipolar disorder (FEBD, n = 52), first-episode psychosis (FEP, n = 61) and healthy controls (HCs, n = 38). Method: JTC bias was assessed using the Bead Task, in which participants were asked to draw as many beads as they wanted and make conclusions about their source. Result: The results showed that both the FEBD and FEP groups exhibited a significantly longer response time and higher tendency to make decisions after drawing a single bead compared to HCs, indicating a subtle tendency towards hastier decision-making in these patient groups. No significant correlations were found between JTC bias and clinical measures. Discussion: This study highlights that JTC bias is present in both FEP and FEBD, pointing to potential vulnerabilities in decision-making early in these disorders. These findings highlight the need for further research to determine whether addressing reasoning biases could ultimately benefit decision-making processes in these populations.