Future spatial footprints of natural hazards: Multi-hazard exposure modelling through cellular automata in the North Aegean Basin, Türkiye
Urban Climate, cilt.70, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 70
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103204
- Dergi Adı: Urban Climate
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, INSPEC
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Cellular automata, FLUS model, Multi-hazard exposure, Scenario-based spatial planning, Türkiye, Urban sprawl
- Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Urban expansion in Mediterranean basins adds new built-up area to alluvial floodplains and fault-adjacent terrains that carry compound natural hazard. This study quantifies projected 2050 multi-hazard exposure for the North Aegean Basin (Kuzey Ege Havzası, ≈9860 km2, Türkiye) through a cloud-native pipeline: a 37-year GLC-FCS30D Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) time series (1985–2022) calibrates a Random Forest (RF)-Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) Cellular Automata (CA) engine; a four-component multi-hazard surface integrates flood, seismic, bio-climatic stress, and wildfire hazard under Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-derived weights; and an exposure intersection under two 2050 growth scenarios quantifies new urban area by hazard class. The impervious footprint expanded from 5814.81 ha in 1985 to 23,988.24 ha in 2022 (312.5% increase). Under the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, 36.1% of simulated 2050 new growth (3564 ha) falls in high or very-high hazard zones (Hazard Concentration Index 1.00). The Ecological-Penalty (ECO) scenario relocates 949.59 ha of this growth but places 833.40 ha in other high-hazard pixels: a net reduction of 116.19 ha, or 1.2 percentage points, equivalent to an Exposure Reduction Ratio (ERR) of 3.3% (90% interval 0.88%–9.64% under AHP-weight perturbation). Ecological penalties alone therefore cannot substitute for hazard-explicit zoning: roughly one-third of ECO growth remains in high-hazard corridors. A retrospective, predictor-corrected hindcast gives a Figure of Merit of 26.3% (an allocation diagnostic, not forecast validation). All outputs are conditional planning-screening estimates. No-build zones (3564 ha), Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) corridors, and a broad Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) screening footprint (246,515 ha) provide planning-screening tools for Izmir Metropolitan Municipality and Türkiye's Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation, and Climate Change.