The Relationship Between Political Instability and Budget Consistency: 1984-2018 Period Analysis in Turkey


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Atilgan-Yasa A., Şanlısoy S., Özen A.

SOSYOEKONOMI, vol.28, no.44, pp.337-354, 2020 (ESCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 28 Issue: 44
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.02.15
  • Journal Name: SOSYOEKONOMI
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.337-354
  • Keywords: Budget, Budgetary Principles, Consistency, Political Instability, ARDL, TIME-SERIES, UNIT-ROOT
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to determine the relationship between the political instability and the consistency of the budget in line with the deviations between the government budget revenue and expenditure estimates and their realizations in Turkey. In other words, the study evaluated the consistency of the objectives in the budget documents, the performance audit and the effects of the political instability on the budget. To what extent political instability affacts the budget estimates and its realization in Turkey has been examined using the ARDL method with data for the 1984-2018 period. It was found that the structural change in the budget system realized in 2006 had a positive effect on the achievement of budget targets. As a result of this study, suggestions for improving the consistency of forecasts and solutions for problems that may be caused by political instability were developed.