Macro Signals in Micro Numbers: The Informational Role of Aggregate Earnings in Forecasting GDP Growth for Turkish Market


Durak M. G., Balsarı Ç., Üçdoğruk Gürel Y., Halaç U.

22. Uluslararası Muhasebe Konferansı, Lefkoşa, Kıbrıs (Kktc), 9 - 12 Eylül 2025, (Yayınlanmadı)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Yayınlanmadı
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Lefkoşa
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Kıbrıs (Kktc)
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The study aims to determine the extent to which the increase in aggregate earnings is effective in predicting the GDP growth rates. By including different perspectives in the analysis, the impact of TFRS adoption, the comparison of predictive abilities of profits and losses, by decomposing aggregate earnings into accruals and cash which component has more predictive power, and finally, whether this relationship varies between sectors are evaluated. In order to conduct these analyses, annual data of the companies whose shares are traded on Borsa Istanbul for the period between 2000 and 2024 are used.