Long Memory in the Turkish Stock Market Return and Volatility

KASMAN A., TORUN E.

CENTRAL BANK REVIEW, cilt.7, sa.2, ss.13-28, 2007 (ESCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 7 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2007
  • Dergi Adı: CENTRAL BANK REVIEW
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.13-28
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: ARFIMA, FIGARCH, Long memory, Turkish stock market, TERM-MEMORY
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper examines the dual long memory property of the Turkish stock market. The data set consists of daily returns, and long memory tests are carried out both for the returns and volatility. The results indicate that long memory dynamics in the returns and volatility might be modeled by using the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model. The results of the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model show strong evidence of long memory in both returns and volatility. The long memory in returns implies that stock prices follow a predictable behavior, which is inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. The evidence of long memory in volatility, however, shows that uncertainty or risk is an important determinant of the behavior of daily stock data in the Turkish stock market.