Impact of climate change and land cover dynamics on nitrate transport to surface waters.


Boyacioglu H., Gunacti M. C., Barbaros F., Gul A., Gul G. O., Ozturk T., ...More

Environmental monitoring and assessment, vol.196, no.3, pp.270, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 196 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10661-024-12402-x
  • Journal Name: Environmental monitoring and assessment
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Compendex, EMBASE, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, Greenfile, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.270
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The study investigated the impact of climate and land cover change on water quality. The novel contribution of the study was to investigate the individual and combined impacts of climate and land cover change on water quality with high spatial and temporal resolution in a basin in Turkey. The global circulation model MPI-ESM-MR was dynamically downscaled to 10-km resolution under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model stream flow and nitrate loads. The land cover model outputs that were produced by the Land Change Modeler (LCM) were used for these simulation studies. Results revealed that decreasing precipitation intensity driven by climate change could significantly reduce nitrate transport to surface waters. In the 2075–2100 period, nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) loads transported to surface water decreased by more than 75%. Furthermore, the transition predominantly from forestry to pastoral farming systems increased loads by about 6%. The study results indicated that fine-resolution land use and climate data lead to better model performance. Environmental managers can also benefit greatly from the LCM-based forecast of land use changes and the SWAT model’s attribution of changes in water quality to land use changes.