Tourism Market Under Global Turmoil: A Wavelet Quantile-on-Quantile Analysis of Economic, Geopolitical, and Climate Risks

BALCI N., KOBA Y.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/sd.71095
  • Dergi Adı: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, Index Islamicus, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study examines the impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Geopolitical Risk (GPR), and Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) on leading tourism stock markets in the US, Italy, T & uuml;rkiye, the UK, and Japan using monthly data from July 2009 to October 2025. The study employs Wavelet Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (WQQR) and Wavelet Quantile-on-Quantile Granger Causality (WQQGC) to analyze relationships across various frequencies and market states. WQQR indicates that risk and uncertainty impact on tourism market are country-specific, regime-dependent, and time-varying. Short-term impacts are largely neutral, except at extreme quantiles; long-term impacts are predominantly negative across all markets. WQQGC analysis confirms these findings. Consequently, the study emphasizes dynamic, regime-dependent tourism policies that prioritize transparent regulatory frameworks, strategic market diversification, and sustainable transition financing. Strengthening institutional resilience and maintaining predictable policy environments are essential to mitigate the long-term erosive effects of multidimensional global risks on the tourism sector.