Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
12th World Congress of the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) on Water Resources and Environment, Thessaloniki, Yunanistan, 27 Haziran - 01 Temmuz 2023, cilt.1, ss.77-78, (Özet Bildiri)
Dry periods and droughts are natural phenomena yet with the climate change pressures ever so intensified, they occur at a much more often and severe rate worldwide (Tramblay et al. 2020). These phenomena can be traced with various indicators and related indices (Mukherjee, Mishra, and Trenberth 2018; Liu et al. 2020). Generally, drought risk assessment is done by modeling these indicators and determining the drought occurrence probabilities (Hervás-Gámez and Delgado-Ramos 2019). The suggested adaptation incorporates the “Kaplan-Meier Estimator”, which is a non-parametric statistic utilized to estimate the survival function from lifetime data. Kaplan-Meier Estimator is often used on medical patients to evaluate their survivability, evaluating their deaths as “events”. The adapted method evaluates the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) scaled wet and dry state, considering drought as the “event”. Suggested method results indicate the non-occurrence probability, so inverted results are considered as the occurrence probability of the events namely, the droughts. Plotted drought risk maps hold value for easy interpretation and implementation decision-making tools for decision-makers. As the case study, the method implemented to the SPI values at various time steps (3, 6, and 12 months) calculated from 27 meteorological stations in Gediz River Basin located in Western Turkey, in the Mediterranean region, that is expected to be one of the most climate changes affected areas worldwide.