A probabilistic assessment of ship blackout incident with Fault Tree Analysis into (FTA) Bayesian Network (BN)


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Göksu B., Şakar C., Yüksel O.

JOURNAL OF MARINE ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, cilt.23, ss.1-16, 2024 (SCI-Expanded)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 23
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/20464177.2024.2423425
  • Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF MARINE ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Compendex, INSPEC
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-16
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Blackouts in maritime activities can cause propulsion loss and dangerous maritime conditions. Bayesian risk analysis is applied to ship blackout incidents in this study to improve understanding and reduce risks. Using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a Bayesian Network (BN) model incorporates fuel quality, lubricating oil quality, sensor error, injector error, and mechanical defects to estimate blackout probability. The model analyses how hazards and their interactions affect this situation using probabilistic inference. Sensitivity analysis identifies variables that affect blackout probabilities and prioritises risk mitigation solutions. Based on prior and posterior probabilities, ‘Automatic Voltage Regulator Failure’ (0.03 prior, 0.17 posterior), ‘Rotor Mechanical Fault’ (0.03 prior, 0.15 posterior), and ‘High Cooling Water Temperature’ (0.03 prior, 0.13 posterior) are the top three blackout causes. Other significant variables include ‘Switchboard Line Failure,’ ‘Faulty Fuel Pump,’ ‘Rotor Open Circuit,’ and ‘Temperature Sensor Failure’ in relative amounts. Bayesian risk analysis can identify and minimise marine blackout concerns, giving decision-makers a comprehensive framework for informed decision-making and proactive risk management. This research emphasises blackout accidents’ importance, improving maritime transportation safety and reliability.