Stress–strength reliability for electricity systems based on the Bernstein copula approximation


Susam S. O., Hüdaverdi B.

Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, cilt.19, sa.1, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 19 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/15567249.2024.2411532
  • Dergi Adı: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, Greenfile, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Bernstein copula, electricity system, fossil fuels, renewable energy, stress–strength reliability
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Electricity is a critical resource for modern society, and its availability is essential for various aspects of daily life, from powering homes to supporting industrial processes and infrastructure. Ensuring a reliable supply of electricity is vital for economic stability and the well-being of a population. As the world moves toward more sustainable and renewable energy sources, understanding the reliability of these sources compared to traditional fossil fuels is crucial. In this study, we develop a methodology that enables the measurement of stress–strength reliability when electricity consumption is considered as the strength variable, positioned between electricity generation from renewable energy sources and fossil fuels as stress variables. We achieve this using the copula-based reliability with Bernstein copula approximation. The methodology is applied to the U.S. monthly electricity data. The result shows that the current rates of electricity output from fossil fuels and renewables will not be sufficient to meet the demand for electricity.