Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
8th International Izmir Economics & Business Administration Congress, İzmir, Türkiye, 23 - 25 Şubat 2024, ss.85-97
The aim of this study is to examine the transition effect of
agricultural support on agricultural growth in Turkey. Agricultural support
policies vary over the years in Turkey. It is necessary to utilize models that
analyze structural shifts throughout time in order to assess these dynamic
changes. The impact of agricultural support shocks on agricultural growth has
been evaluated using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR)
model in this study. The Tramo/Seat method is applied to seasonally adjust the
quarterly data spanning from 2006:Q1 to 2023:Q3. The coefficients for all
variables are interpreted as elasticity values, which are computed by taking
the natural logarithm. The vector Yt=[(SUPPORTagricultural),
(LOANagricultural), (GDPagricultural)] represents the internal variables
utilized in both linear VAR and TVP-VAR models. SUPPORTagricultural represents
agricultural support payments allocated from the central government budget to
the agricultural sector, LOANagricultural indicates the amount of credit
utilized for the agricultural sector, and GDPagricultural denotes the value of
agricultural gross domestic product in this vector. Two stages have been
followed to determine the transition effect of agricultural support payments on
agricultural growth. Firstly, the stationary of the variables has been
evaluated using unit root tests. Then, the results of the linear VAR model and
TVP-VAR model have been analyzed using all variables that have become
stationary after taking first differences. According to the impulse response
functions of the linear VAR model, the effect of shocks in agricultural support
during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2019 coronavirus pandemic on
agricultural GDP is to a great extent similar. During both economic crisis
periods, the responses of agricultural GDP fluctuate above or below the initial
equilibrium level until the end of the 6th period, which then stabilizes in
subsequent periods in response to a shock in agricultural support variables. On
the other hand, 10.000 iterations have been performed to approximate the
parameters in the TVP-VAR models. It has been determined that the transition
effect from agricultural support to agricultural GDP is positive when examining
the impulse response functions of the TVP-VAR model. Also, positive shocks in
agricultural support lead to an increase in agricultural GDP. The highest
positive response of agricultural GDP to agricultural support shocks has been
calculated as 1.4% in the study period. Furthermore, it is found that the
transition effect from agricultural support to agricultural GDP gradually
decreases from 2014 onwards. Based on the results obtained from the study, it
is considered necessary to increase the share of agricultural support in
national income compared to other developing countries and to distribute it
effectively, to increase support for technology-intensive production aimed at
improving agricultural productivity in the short and long term, to focus on
support policies for agricultural inputs that will provide cost advantages in
strategically important markets, and to plan policies that will enable not only
large agricultural enterprises but also numerous small agricultural enterprises
in rural areas to benefit more effectively from agricultural support.