THE CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) AND TURKISH AGRICULTURE: A SUSTAINABLE TRANSITION

The European Union introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2023 to prevent "carbon leakage" and ensure fair competition under its Emissions Trading System (ETS). While initially covering carbon-intensive sectors like cement and iron-steel, CBAM's inclusion of nitrogenous fertilizers already impacts agricultural production costs. Furthermore, ongoing EU consultations suggest a high probability of CBAM's direct expansion to processed or new product groups, explicitly mentioning agricultural commodities. France's 2025 impact analysis projects an additional 3-12% cost for non-EU exporters under a potential "Agriculture-CBAM" regime.

For Turkey, a major agricultural exporter to the EU, this presents a critical challenge. Product-specific analyses reveal significant variations in carbon intensity; for instance, heated greenhouse tomatoes can have a footprint of 1.7 kg CO₂e/kg, leading to an estimated €136/ton CO₂e certificate cost at current ETS prices, translating to a 6-8% price increase for Turkish exports. Key emission hotspots identified in Turkish agriculture include synthetic fertilizers and energy consumption.

To manage this pressure, the paper proposes a dual approach. First, implementing data-driven emission reduction strategies such as precision fertilization, nitrification inhibitors (reducing N₂O by 15-30%), biochar application (long-term carbon storage), and renewable energy integration in greenhouses. Second, establishing robust digital Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (dMRV) infrastructure, leveraging satellite imagery and IoT sensors to streamline compliance and reduce costs by up to 40%. Turkey's national ETS, set to expand to a voluntary pilot phase for agriculture by 2026-2028, offers a crucial opportunity for data standardization and method development. Developing a "digital carbon passport" platform, integrated with TARBİL, could facilitate CBAM declarations and green finance access.

In conclusion, while CBAM does not yet directly cover agricultural products, its indirect effects are already felt, and direct inclusion is increasingly likely. Proactive adoption of low-emission technologies, institutionalizing digital traceability, and aligning national policies with CBAM are imperative for Turkey to maintain competitiveness and achieve climate goals, transforming the "carbon wall" into a catalyst for sustainable agricultural transition.