Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Ocean Engineering, cilt.343, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
The marine transport of hazardous chemicals presents significant risks, particularly when containment systems like Pressure Vacuum (PV) valves fail. Malfunctioning PV valves can cause overpressure or vacuum conditions, leading to cargo tank rupture or implosion. This study introduces a hybrid methodology combining Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) analysis with Bayesian Network (BN) modeling to evaluate the probability and environmental consequences of PV valve failure on chemical tankers. Expert-led HAZOP sessions identified critical deviations, root causes, and potential safeguards. These insights were integrated into a fuzzy Bayesian framework to quantify spill likelihoods. The integration of fuzzy logic with Bayesian Networks allows expert linguistic judgments to be mathematically captured, reducing epistemic uncertainty where historical data are scarce. Results indicate a 19.4 % probability of tank rupture due to PV valve failure, with valve freezing and poor maintenance as major risk factors. Sensitivity analysis reveals that human factors, particularly operator distractions, substantially increase spill risk. The hybrid approach enables early risk detection and supports proactive prevention strategies. This framework serves as a decision-support tool for maritime safety authorities, operators, and policymakers to enhance environmental protection in hazardous chemical shipping.