Determinants of Turkish real effective exchange rates


VURAL B. M.

QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, vol.73, pp.151-158, 2019 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 73
  • Publication Date: 2019
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.qref.2018.06.004
  • Journal Name: QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.151-158
  • Keywords: PPP, Exchange rate determination, B-S effect, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, PASS-THROUGH, COINTEGRATION
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Widening current account deficits went hand in hand with considerable volatility, and financial fragility for last three decades. Within these circumstances, Turkish Lira has been exposed to huge oscillations from time to time. These kind of substantial ups and downs raise the questions on the persistency of equilibrium exchange rates for TL. This paper aims to assess the long run equilibrium path for Turkish Lira and its fundamental determinants. Empirical investigation suggests that the main fundamental determinants of Turkish real effective exchange rates are the real GDP per capita relative to trading partners, oil prices, fiscal expenditures and international openness. Despite expectations, net foreign assets do not exhibit a significant long run relationship with real exchange rates in Turkey. Persistent rise in productivity measure (GDP per capita relative to major trading partners) is associated with the appreciation pressure on equilibrium exchange rates. (C) 2018 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.