Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
27tn Annual Conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists, Athens, Yunanistan, 25 - 28 Haziran 2019
In an industry as volatile and as capital intensive as tanker shipping, forecasting the future price movements in the market might determine the line between bankruptcy and success. As the crude oil being one of the main ingredients used for satisfying worlds energy needs and production of many petrochemical products, actors in dirty tanker market operating in Arabian Gulf, also known as one of the world's greatest crude oil deposits, and South East Asia, which is considered as the factory of the world, route can gain significant insights from such forecasting applications to maximize their efficiency. Due to the difficulties existing in long-term forecasting of freight rates, employment of Box-Jenkins approach for short-term forecasting of tanker freight rates offer both greater accuracy and can be used as a market speculation. Three Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models were developed for the forecasting of average monthly time series freight data between June 2009- July 2018 gathered from Simpson Spence and Young (SSY) and Bloomberg Professional. The freight data consists of time charter equivalent (usd/day) freight rates of dirty Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), Suezmax and Aframax vessels employed at Arabian Gulf-South East Asia Route. The modelling and estimation process is presented and the employed model is evaluated by its prediction power and on out of sampling forecasting is conducted.