FORECASTING DROUGHT BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) IN KUCUK MENDERES BASIN, TURKEY


GÜNAÇTI M. C., ONUŞLUEL GÜL G., Benzeden E., Kuzucu A., ÇETİNKAYA C. P., BARAN T.

4th International Conference on Water Resources and Wetlands, Tulcea, Romania, 5 - 09 September 2018, pp.184-189 identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume:
  • City: Tulcea
  • Country: Romania
  • Page Numbers: pp.184-189
  • Keywords: Drought, forecast, SPI, stochastic modeling
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Drought, a natural disaster, slowly develops over time, and its effects are usually within a long time span. Benefiting from such temporal patterns, it is possible to reduce the most adverse effects of drought effectively, provided that they are monitored in time. Drought, often gives rise to environmental, social and economic problems Kucuk Menderes Basin in Western Turkey, which accommodates significant agricultural land, is one of the regions suffering from occasional drought events. A systematic analysis of the drought pattern in such areas would help in identifying drought scenarios and will be considered to aid in drought management. In the presented study, observed monthly precipitation data covering the period 1972-2016 at a selected meteorological station in the basin was analysed and modelled based on the stochastic techniques. Genereted synthetic precipitation serie according to the model was then used to compute 6-month SPI values in order to quantify drought conditions. Constructed model is to examine probable drought events and to use its inputs as guidiance for drought management plans in Kucuk Menderes Basin.