ANP extended STAMP model for complex system accident analysis: a real case of ship main engine failure


Ceylan B. O., Celik M. S., AKYAR D. A.

Journal of Marine Engineering and Technology, 2025 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/20464177.2025.2502198
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Marine Engineering and Technology
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Compendex, INSPEC
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Accident analysis, ship safety, complex systems, STAMP, ANP, maritime accident
  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Industries with complex systems, including the maritime sector, are susceptible to accidents with potentially catastrophic consequences. Effective accident analysis necessitates a comprehensive approach to quantify and prioritise contributing factors and their interconnections. This study introduces a novel methodology that integrates the system-theory-based STAMP accident analysis model with an expert system-based Analytic Network Process (ANP) extension. The approach is applied to a real ship accident case, M/V Guroni, where the STAMP model identified key contributing factors, which were subsequently analysed using the ANP model to create a complementary structure. The results indicate that the accident was driven by multiple interacting factors, with human (58.61%) and organisational (26.52%) elements playing dominant roles, followed by external (10.58%) and hardware (4.29%) factors. These findings underscore the significant influence of human and organisational factors (85.13% combined) in accidents and demonstrate the model's versatility in enhancing safety and reliability across industries. Furthermore, the study offers actionable insights for addressing critical human and organisational factors in accident analysis, prevention, and safety management. It highlights the theoretical and practical significance of the proposed approach, demonstrating its relevance and applicability across diverse sectors, including aviation and nuclear energy.