Risk analysis for confined space accidents onboard ship using fuzzy bow-tie methodology

Creative Commons License

Şakar C., Büber M., Köseoğlu B., Töz A. C.

OCEAN ENGINEERING, vol.263, pp.1-11, 2022 (SCI-Expanded)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 263
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112386
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Communication Abstracts, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, ICONDA Bibliographic, INSPEC, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-11
  • Dokuz Eylül University Affiliated: Yes


Confined spaces pose a number of physical and environmental hazards to workers. Risks associated with confined spaces are one of the leading causes of loss of life on board. Therefore, risk assessment is vital to the seafarer's life. In this context, the principal aim of this research is to analyze the risks associated with works in confined spaces on-board through an integrated model. To do this, a fuzzy based bow-tie methodology was performed to identify the causes and the potential consequences of the unsafe confined space operations. The study found that E3 (commercial/time pressure) with probability 9.595E-01 has the highest impact on the top event. The results also indicate that, macro-level revisions such as improvements in industry practices, changes in organizational culture, redefining roles and responsibilities are critical to minimize the potential of recurrence of such accidents. This study makes a significant contribution to the relevant literature as one of the few pieces of research using the combined FTA-ETA as a dynamic risk analysis methodology. In addition to its contribution to knowledge, this study provides vital information to safety operators. Thus, the findings are valuable for developing risk reduction strategies for unsafe confined space operations. Furthermore, it is recommended to use other risk analysis tools and consider rescue operations for further research.