Thesis Type: Postgraduate
Institution Of The Thesis: Dokuz Eylül University, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı, Turkey
Approval Date: 2025
Thesis Language: Turkish
Student: SERHAT YILMAZ
Supervisor: Hakan Kahyaoğlu
Open Archive Collection: AVESIS Open Access Collection
Abstract:ABSTRACT Master's Thesis Analysis of the Sustainability of External Debts in the Turkish Economy: A Quantile Integration Approach Serhat YILMAZ Dokuz Eylul University Graduate School of Social Sciences Departmant of Economics Financial Economics and Banking Program The concept of external debt, which refers to financing in the form of loans and similar funds that a country obtains from official or private financial institutions abroad, international organizations or other countries and includes a repayment obligation, basically arises from the savings deficit in countries and is an economic policy tool that countries use to ensure their external balance, which is the current account balance, and their internal balance, which is the budget balance, and stability. While economic approaches that approve state intervention in the economy are seen to have a more positive approach to the external borrowing mechanism, economic approaches that adopt a market economy approach are seen to be hesitant towards external borrowing due to its potential costs. In our study, it is aimed to test the sustainability of external debts in Turkey by taking the current balance model as a basis within the scope of foreign exchange income and expenditure, and the approach of the balance of payments, which started to be published within the framework of international standards with the publication of the sixth book of the IMF, was taken as basis. ADF unit root test, KPSS stationarity test and Quantile ADF tests were utilized as analysis techniques. As an outcome of the analysis, it has been revealed that the Turkish economy carries certain risks regarding the sustainability of foreign debts, but foreign debts are sustainable as long as the rate of increase in foreign exchange revenues is greater than the pace of growth in foreign exchange expenditures. Keywords: External Debt, Debt Sustainability, Current Account Balance, Economic Shocks, Quantile Integration